Demographic picture of Montenegro

Montenegro - Ministry of Labour and Social Welfare Labour Directorate

Demographic picture of Montenegro

Population  results census in Montenegro in 2011 demonstrated the continuation of trends of aging and slower growth of Montenegrin population, which were noted during the eighties of the last century. These trends, in combination with internal and external migrations, made significant impact on the demographic image of Montenegro. Population aging was noted as a consequence of decreasing rates of natality and increase of life expectancy in the previous period. This resulted in the continuous increase of the older population in general, and increasing mortality rate. While in nineteen-seventy-one, the average age of women and men in Montenegro was twenty-nine-point-eight and twenty-seven-point-four, in two-thousand-eleven, those values were at thirty-eight-point-four for women and thirty-six years of age for men. In two-thousand-eleven, there were six-hundred-and-twenty-thousand-twenty-nine inhabitants in Montenegro, while this number was six-hundred-and-twelve-thousand-two-hundred-sixty-six in two-thousand-three. In the period between two censuses, the total number of inhabitants increased for one-point-three percents. During the last two decades of the twentieth century, the growth of population slowed down, and an increase in population aging followed. In addition to biological factor, population migrations contributed to those results, and at the time, migrations were conditioned by socio-economic events as well. Some of the most important ones include the fall of former Socialist Federative Republic of Yugoslavia and wars in the region, than international community sanctions, deep economic crisis, political issues, et cetera. Of twenty-one municipality in Montenegro, only six noted a growth in population (Bar, Budva, Podgorica, Rožaje, Danilovgrad i Tivat), while the others noted a fall. This especially pertains to the municipalities in the northern region, where population numbers fell up to twenty-nine percent. Emigrants from Montenegro mostly moved to the other republic of former Yugoslavia, and during the nineteen-nineties and two-thousands, to Western European and transAtlantic countries as well. On the other hand, during that period, there was an influx of population in Montenegro, but its scope was smaller than that of emigrations. However, according to MONSTAT results of these projections, in two-thousand-sixty-one, the number of inhabitants in Montenegro will be in the interval between seven-hundred-and-forty-seven-thousand (high fertility variable) and four-hundred-sixty-nine-thousand (constant variable). In the case of “maximum” variable (significant fertility increase, decrease in mortality and positive migrational difference), the number of inhabitants in Montenegro will increase for one-hundred-twenty-seven-thousand during the period of next fifty years (twenty-point-five percent compared to two-thousand-eleven census). According to United Nations projections, until two-thousand-fifty, negative demographic trends will cause the decrease in population of Montenegro of around eight-point-two percent. Therefore, in two-thousand-fifty, there would be five-hundred-seventy-four-thousand inhabitants in our country, which is close to the numbers recorded in the end of seventies of last century. This value would put us on the twenty-sixth number on the list of world countries expected to face the largest procentual decrease in population during the next fifty years. MONSTAT projections up to two-thousand-sixty underline four significant factors: the process of population aging will be one of the most significant characteristics of demographic development of Montenegro, and the country will be demographically older in the end of projected period, than it was fifty years earlier. This trend will be noted in all the regions of Montenegro, so the population of each region and the country in general will be in the stadium of deep demographic age. The percentage of those younger than fifteen years of age in the total population of Montenegro will decrease in two-thousand-sixty compared to two-thousand-eleven. As a consequence of these factors, index of dependability will increase. In the variable of zero migrational difference, this index will significantly increase - from zero-point-forty-seven in two-thousand-eleven to zero-point-seventy-five in two-thousand-sixty. The percentage of the northern region in the total population of Montenegro will further decrease, while the percentage of central and coastal region will increase. Keeping the aforementioned in mind, in order to achieve the current level of economic development, it will be necessary to increase work activities (especially of the part of the population between fifteen and sixty-seven years of age), i.e. the offer of workforce would have to be compensated by foreign workforce or possible work engagement of the older population (over sixty-seven years of age). If the situation in economy does not change and the trends on the labour market remain the same, we will face a decrease of the population that is able to work, which will lead to lower GDP and lower life standard. Population aging leads to increased expenses from the current fiscal revenue by increasing expenses needed to cover pensions and health care. It will also lead to bigger strains on the population that is able to work. In the long-term, a decrease in national savings will occur, which could have negative impact on economic growth, as the savings direct new investments. According to MONSTAT projections, by two-thousand-thirtieth, we can expect an increase in the number of migrants compared to the number of emigrants, which would result in positive and growing migrational difference. Migrations in Montenegro will significantly be impacted by the expected EU integration and global movements. Keeping in mind Montenegro’s climate advantages and EU integration, it can be expected that a certain number of migrants will belong to the older population (as was the case with Spain or Florida in the USA).

According to estimates of population in 2017.y: 

Number of inhabitants in Montenegro in mid-2017 was 622 373;  Number of children (aged 0-17) in Montenegro in mid-2017 was 137 419 or 22.1% of the total population;  Working age population or the population aged 15-64 years is 418 630 or 67.3 % of the total population;  In Montenegro, on the basis of natural increase per 1 000 inhabitants, the population increases annually by 1.4;  The 1 000 population per year made 5.3 marriages, which is the rate of marriages, and the divorce rate is 1.2;  The rate of migration in Montenegro is 8.4 which means that for each of 1 000 inhabitants 8.4 persons changes their place of residence within the borders of Montenegro;  Life expectancy at birth in 2017 was 76.7 years.

In 2017 in Montenegro were 3 272 marriages and 765 divorced. The number of marriages in 2017 is 2.9% higher than in the 2016. The statistics of marriages in 2017 records increase in the number of divorces by 8.8% compared to 2016, or increase from 703 in 2016 to 765 divorces in 2017.

In Montenegro in 2017 there were born 7 432 live births children, 3 873 or 52, 1 % are boys, and 3 559 or 47,9 % are girls;  In the same year there were dead 6 523 persons. From that number 3 435 are men, and 3 088 are women;  In 2017 natural increase in Montenegro is positive and it is 909. The highest number of live birth children was recorded in Podgorica 2 675, that makes more than third (35, 9%) of live births in Montenegro;  The lowest number of children was born in Savnik 12;  Dead persons were most in Podgorica 1 712, which is (26, 2%) of total number of dead in Montenegro;